Bitcoin's Failed Rebound Puts $79,150 Support Back In Focus

Bitcoin (BTC) closed the hour ending at 03:00 UTC on 29th October near $79,847, below its price immediately before the Federal Reserve's decision. The overnight rebound had reached $81,709. Its reversal now leaves a cluster of earlier daily lows between $79,150 and $79,380 in focus.

The Fed held its benchmark interest rate at 3.75% to 4% on 28th October. Ten officials backed the decision, while Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack preferred a quarter percentage point increase. The statement said inflation remained elevated.

The momentum recovery has failed

The hourly moving average convergence divergence indicator, or MACD, crossed below its signal line on the hour ending at 02:00 UTC. This reversed the bullish crossover confirmed five hours earlier. MACD compares two moving averages to measure momentum; its signal line smooths those changes.

By 03:00 UTC, MACD was -34.92 against a signal line of +96.42. The gap between them widened from -78.05 to -131.34 in the final hour, showing that downside momentum had strengthened. These calculations use the standard 12, 26 and 9 period settings and completed hourly candles.

The hourly relative strength index, or RSI, which compares recent gains with losses, also fell below its 50 midpoint. At 34.69, momentum was weak but remained above the conventional oversold threshold of 30. The latest reading therefore does not establish an oversold rebound.

The final hour traded 94.75 BTC on Bitstamp, roughly twice the preceding 20-hour median. The decline therefore came with comparatively heavy turnover on this exchange. It does not establish a market-wide volume surge.

Bitcoin outlook for the next 24 to 72 hours

The immediate reading remains bearish while completed hourly closes stay below $80,645 to $80,770, the area occupied by the hourly 50 and 20 period exponential moving averages at this snapshot. These averages give more weight to recent prices. The predecision close near $80,766 also falls inside that area. These are snapshot levels: the moving averages need updating as each hour closes.

Holding the $79,150 to $79,380 daily low cluster would leave room for consolidation between those references. An hourly close below the 24th October low of $79,145.75, followed by failure to reclaim it, would strengthen the downside continuation case. A recovery back above the cluster would weaken that breakdown signal.

Consecutive hourly closes above $80,770, alongside RSI recovering above 50 and MACD crossing back above its signal line, would favour a recovery. Both indicators measure price momentum, so they strengthen the same reading rather than provide independent evidence. That would challenge the immediate bearish reading and bring $81,700 back into focus: the overnight high almost matched the declining 20-day exponential moving average at the 28th October close. Falling back below the reclaimed area would undermine that recovery.

The daily picture supplies a counterweight. Daily RSI recovered from 41.50 on 26th October to 47.58 on 28th October, while daily MACD's negative gap narrowed. The larger recovery was improving before the overnight reversal. The next useful distinction is whether the earlier daily lows hold, rather than whether a brief bounce carries Bitcoin back above $80,000.